Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0a43fbc71e7af3844f8fbf862f5283598dfa56c7f49c4f81ed99db40c6206db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10bd…8ff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,951$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 43c | 664.3$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.75 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 44c | 588.65$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 470.93$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 317.25$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.78 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Yes | 52c | 305$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.44 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…ce11backed Yes | 38c | 266.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 55c | 264.33$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.01 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 76c | 214.69$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 213.17$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 15c | 200.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 77c | 170.25$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.81 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed No | 58c | 169.71$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 41c | 153.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 64c | 150.05$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd358…cfbdbacked Yes | 70c | 147$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.57 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 27c | 144$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.48 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed Yes | 76c | 137.69$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 61c | 134.65$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 128.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 19c | 121.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 56c | 114.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01bf…886ebacked Yes | 58c | 105.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 34c | 105.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…140fbacked Yes | 30c | 100.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 43c | 97.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 19c | 92.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 41c | 89.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 70c | 81.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 26c | 78.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 54c | 75.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 74.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 38c | 73.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 22c | 68.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 61.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 61.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 51c | 60.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 50c | 54.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 54c | 48.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…56babacked Yes | 55c | 47.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…030dbacked No | 66c | 45.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 42.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 59c | 40.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 41c | 40.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 37c | 38.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…c3e6backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 79c | 31.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 40c | 31.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 39c | 30.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 27.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 53c | 26.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…3bdbbacked Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…88c9backed Yes | 46c | 21.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 61c | 21.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 19.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 65c | 18.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c97…013bbacked Yes | 78c | 16.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.