Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x740e5a4e6649085bd6a204c31c402b1aaca23aa3d79bd7c67a730524fea86e7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 43c | 9,051$3,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,176.85 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 26c | 7,213$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,888.54 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…5598backed No | 70c | 5,715$4,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000.5 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 63c | 4,628$2,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,906.87 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked No | 75c | 3,825$2,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,868.75 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe348…a303backed Yes | 28c | 3,805$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,743.96 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 45c | 2,264$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.97 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 738.91$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.53 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 24c | 735.45$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.94 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…ec00backed Yes | 42c | 630.07$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 20c | 505.88$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.35 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked No | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed No | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 34c | 438$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.08 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 40c | 402.97$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed No | 76c | 370$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 74c | 276.14$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.34 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 49c | 204.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 74c | 196.04$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.07 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7b…1476backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 44c | 178.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 25c | 138.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 181 | 55.2%100 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 24c | 137.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.3 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 120.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.36 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 76c | 118.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…5cd8backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed No | 44c | 113.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 31c | 109.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.28 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Yes | 55c | 93.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +4.1wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Yes | 80c | 87.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed Yes | 25c | 66.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…089fbacked Yes | 25c | 64.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 25c | 61.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 80c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…bd53backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 21c | 54.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2139backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +190.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 61c | 48.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 62c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…9872backed No | 76c | 46.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed No | 31c | 44.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5a…bf0abacked Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7e…b0d8backed Yes | 64c | 39.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e79…29a7backed Yes | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…f4e4backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 34c | 29.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 178 | 17.4%31 W · 147 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…8e2ebacked Yes | 80c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…5b77backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked No | 75c | 20.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c7…d11ebacked No | 52c | 19.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…11c4backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ed…ea1cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OGC Nice vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw?this page
- Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-08?No won
- Will OGC Nice win on 2026-02-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.