South American Leagues · resolved market
CD Riestra vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x744371e652b7295d6eaa417a468a999e92432f3347a1b182d4b38a9e651146a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 4,498$3,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.79 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 23c | 3,003$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.52 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 25c | 1,249$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.66 | 148 | 24.3%36 W · 112 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 80c | 997.03$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.83 | 5,821 | 45.4%2,642 W · 3,179 L | +97.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 24c | 819.28$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.86 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 76c | 568.85$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.85 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 67c | 486.72$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.88 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…0d7abacked Over | 29c | 275.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 1,339 | 56.9%762 W · 577 L | +55.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…ca64backed Under | 70c | 241.67$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Over | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 495 | 41%203 W · 292 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 13c | 192.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Over | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d6…a929backed Over | 22c | 174.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 30c | 164.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Over | 28c | 147$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 44cpaid | +78%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 68c | 146.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 71c | 110.85$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 3,446 | 51.4%1,771 W · 1,675 L | +21.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Over | 14c | 110.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 74c | 91.44$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 2,175 | 43.6%948 W · 1,227 L | -56.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 22c | 84.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -9.0wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Over | 27c | 75.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -8.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked Over | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 29c | 70.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…6e5dbacked Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Over | 25c | 68.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…8b74backed Over | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 28c | 51.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…804dbacked Under | 76c | 48.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 78c | 42.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…5165backed Over | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f9…3f4fbacked Over | 37c | 36.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd944…07d5backed Under | 78c | 30.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…3e20backed Under | 76c | 14.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…7e9fbacked Under | 71c | 14.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Riestra vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 2.5this page
- CD Riestra vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CD Riestra vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Riestra vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Riestra vs. CA Newell's Old Boys: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.