CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7446e6e129a07b0980171d822c6e51ffa2438ff0a474b811789d4f04237aa803
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NIPof Heroic, NIP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked NIP | 76c | 3,512$2,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.28 | 631 | 57.1%360 W · 271 L | +40.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79be…b605backed Heroic | 9c | 2,560$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Heroic | 32c | 2,471$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.73 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…284ebacked Heroic | 46c | 1,751$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.51 | 209 | 35.4%74 W · 135 L | -21.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Heroic | 27c | 1,599$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.19 | 1,088 | 54.2%590 W · 498 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff2…8ea1backed NIP | 58c | 1,034$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.74 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked NIP | 62c | 1,000$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.4 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked NIP | 66c | 891.91$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.03 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed NIP | 64c | 815.66$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.25 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed Heroic | 12c | 682$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 610 | 34.3%209 W · 401 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked NIP | 74c | 622.17$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.9 | 1,040 | 44%458 W · 582 L | -22.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f1…5279backed Heroic | 31c | 600$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Heroic | 32c | 507.99$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.56 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Heroic | 19c | 473.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 266 | 24.4%65 W · 201 L | -26.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Heroic | 44c | 439.39$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.15 | 980 | 52.4%514 W · 466 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked NIP | 62c | 358.69$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.24 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked NIP | 78c | 313.32$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.22 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Heroic | 8c | 304$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 417 | 16.5%69 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7a…afb0backed NIP | 45c | 276.14$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.88 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…8d21backed Heroic | 38c | 269.06$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Heroic | 17c | 250$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Heroic | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,278 | 21.9%280 W · 998 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked NIP | 53c | 248.12$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.88 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Heroic | 55c | 211.36$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 374 | 48.4%181 W · 193 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed NIP | 49c | 205.31$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.71 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516b…2dcfbacked Heroic | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed NIP | 55c | 181.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 485 | 62.7%304 W · 181 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Heroic | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x66da…69b0backed Heroic | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 280 | 42.5%119 W · 161 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed NIP | 68c | 134$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 640 | 46.3%296 W · 344 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked NIP | 63c | 126.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Heroic | 52c | 115.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 1,485 | 58%862 W · 623 L | +66.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8e…c29ebacked NIP | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 281 | 43.8%123 W · 158 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b4…2ce6backed NIP | 54c | 91.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 297 | 57.6%171 W · 126 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03cc…6193backed NIP | 56c | 88.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed NIP | 74c | 74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Heroic | 49c | 72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…e076backed NIP | 66c | 67.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Heroic | 18c | 60.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe232…6ceabacked Heroic | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 68 | 11.8%8 W · 60 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed NIP | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 217 | 41.5%90 W · 127 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Heroic | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 182 | 33%60 W · 122 L | -22.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…4880backed Heroic | 41c | 49.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 593 | 54.8%325 W · 268 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…b2ffbacked NIP | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Heroic | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 368 | 46.7%172 W · 196 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed Heroic | 44c | 32.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 226 | 50%113 W · 113 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc2…8b9bbacked Heroic | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 PlayoffsNIP won
- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP - Map 2 WinnerNIP won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs NIP (+1.5)NIP won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.