Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x744bf7b8a7ab2843f15d1a004dfc5017798218479164bd76048c4630b63c348c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 1,300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 720.62$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.83 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes | 31c | 499.96$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.99 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked No | 67c | 348.73$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.68 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 27c | 345.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 68c | 330.67$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.57 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 12c | 312.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 219.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 6c | 175$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 168.42$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 160.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 141.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 139.75$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f6…6cc9backed Yes | 45c | 137.05$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 36c | 128.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 118.67$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 115.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 101.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 75c | 101.46$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 35c | 99.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 27c | 99.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 99.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 34c | 99.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked No | 65c | 96.51$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e2…6c94backed Yes | 16c | 94.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 90.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 68c | 81.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ff…145cbacked Yes | 29c | 80.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 69c | 70.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 67c | 67.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked Yes | 34c | 65.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 64.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…2ae6backed Yes | 32c | 64.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 57c | 63.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 66c | 61.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 30c | 56.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 29c | 54.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…72f8backed Yes | 33c | 51.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 27c | 49.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201e…ffdfbacked Yes | 38c | 49.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf644…a9afbacked Yes | 32c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 42c | 47.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 69c | 47.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 35c | 46.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 43c | 45.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 44c | 42.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked Yes | 39c | 42.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 71c | 42.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…3783backed No | 69c | 40.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…1f1abacked Yes | 35c | 39.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 35c | 38.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 37.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f71…79a6backed No | 62c | 36.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…32c1backed Yes | 41c | 34.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…222fbacked No | 73c | 33.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…8036backed No | 63c | 29.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 69c | 29.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 66c | 28.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 69c | 28.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 73c | 28.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 23.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 68c | 22.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 69c | 21.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 69c | 20.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 74c | 19.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked No | 73c | 17.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac2…4831backed No | 78c | 17.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 79cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…6aa4backed No | 64c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or below on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.