Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fdfb341de33ce0af63e9e2a32ed03e17bd471427bca6cc5e33623ae30e8ad1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 4c | 10,046$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.05 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…ae1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,914$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +93%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 19c | 1,522$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.6 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,302$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 8c | 1,158$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.69 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 9c | 957.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…2ffcbacked Yes | 2c | 923.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 66c | 710.98$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.01 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 49c | 625.54$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.75 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 13c | 559.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 557.92$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 5c | 470$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…72f8backed Yes | 23c | 402.95$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.29 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 19c | 400.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 399.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 13c | 376.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 70c | 344.81$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.5 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 17c | 324.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 12c | 305.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 9c | 302.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 16c | 299.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 9c | 286.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 281.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 10c | 272.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 242.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 235.16$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…3baabacked Yes | 8c | 230.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 51c | 220.17$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.67 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380b…bfa8backed No | 22c | 211.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.75 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed Yes | 31c | 206.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.2 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed No | 75c | 195.07$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 43c | 194.48$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 25c | 182.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5728…d2b2backed No | 56c | 180.85$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 52c | 171.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 156.79$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 77c | 156.65$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 20c | 154.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.25 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 16c | 152.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed No | 47c | 151.78$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.61 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 150.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 147.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed No | 26c | 146.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.34 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 130.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed No | 14c | 126.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.77 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 42c | 108.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…8495backed No | 75c | 106.5$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 103.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes | 40c | 98.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 21c | 95.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 25c | 92.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 19c | 91.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 35c | 91.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 77c | 79.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 31c | 79.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…6278backed Yes | 15c | 71.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0d…9bbdbacked Yes | 45c | 69.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 20c | 69.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 23c | 64.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f0…f424backed Yes | 48c | 59.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 69c | 59.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272a…88cfbacked Yes | 33c | 51.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed Yes | 33c | 46.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 43.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 73c | 40.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 69c | 39.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…4a36backed Yes | 73c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…d704backed Yes | 46c | 33.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 74c | 32.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 74c | 26.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…9b4dbacked Yes | 43c | 23.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb93c…00e1backed No | 78c | 21.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 69c | 19.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6825…836abacked Yes | 78c | 18.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 76c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or below on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.