Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc730634fc14ae13959e14cf369ebd5592ec7f3ad155dd4fca754445adc4afdb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 1,156$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.81 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 62c | 717.57$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.59 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 57c | 649.92$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.96 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 62c | 441.48$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.29 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 64c | 411.59$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.69 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 48c | 381.13$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.41 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 37c | 368.03$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.75 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 37c | 354.32$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.39 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 68c | 336.84$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.54 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 38c | 292.36$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.27 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 289.94$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed No | 53c | 271.72$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.79 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 4c | 260.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 34c | 247.76$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.7 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 51c | 236.13$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.41 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 39c | 234.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.38 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Yes | 40c | 233.01$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 70c | 210.92$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 19c | 204.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.83 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…72f8backed Yes | 28c | 191.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.44 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 191.88$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 10c | 188.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.23 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed Yes | 32c | 188.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.17 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 18c | 181.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.85 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 181.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 173.22$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…3baabacked Yes | 45c | 171.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 11c | 159.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.09 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 56c | 154.73$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 147.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 146.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 54c | 139.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 38c | 135.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.53 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f0…f424backed Yes | 74c | 129.52$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 121.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 105.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 103.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 39c | 99.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 43c | 99.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 38c | 98.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 42c | 98.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0d…9bbdbacked Yes | 70c | 98.14$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 94.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 15c | 91.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a92…501dbacked Yes | 38c | 91.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 68c | 86.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed Yes | 13c | 85.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 31c | 84.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 79.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 79.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 79.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 69c | 78.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 45c | 75.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 46c | 72.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 34c | 68.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed Yes | 70c | 68.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…0053backed Yes | 24c | 65.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked Yes | 37c | 64.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed Yes | 35c | 59.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…8b16backed Yes | 26c | 59.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 69c | 59.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 58.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 58.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 65c | 57.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…9b4dbacked Yes | 77c | 56.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 72c | 54.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 59c | 54.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cbc8backed Yes | 41c | 52.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 39c | 50.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 65c | 50.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 54c | 49.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 42c | 49.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 62c | 48.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 61c | 48.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 30c | 47.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 33c | 47.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 61c | 47.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 36c | 46.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 41c | 46.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 55c | 44.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 38c | 44.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 40c | 44.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked No | 57c | 42.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 77c | 42.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201e…ffdfbacked Yes | 78c | 41.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…fa42backed No | 68c | 39.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 52c | 38.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 64c | 36.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…2db8backed Yes | 35c | 36.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 30c | 36.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed No | 51c | 35.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…d731backed No | 68c | 34.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…89c6backed Yes | 35c | 34.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 48c | 33.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or below on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.