MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7490b7a68c1572278ad268ef7f9743521a2ccd471b2ab10c36b2b28d13fea6dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 9,166$6,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,741.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 31c | 8,677$2,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,707.03 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 3,010$1,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.44 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked New York Yankees | 31c | 2,296$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.68 | 168 | 48.2%81 W · 87 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 31c | 1,022$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.03 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed New York Yankees | 35c | 964$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.8 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 694.78$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 694.78$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 32c | 539.28$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.69 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 435.61$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.89 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 430.64$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.95 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 398.5$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.44 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…7aa6backed New York Yankees | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed New York Yankees | 40c | 315.74$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.3 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Yankees | 33c | 285.94$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed New York Yankees | 71c | 273.53$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.21 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed New York Yankees | 39c | 253.85$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 220$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 197.93$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 64c | 185.5$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 185.43$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.17 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed New York Yankees | 40c | 182.25$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd633…8c3fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 175.81$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…556bbacked New York Yankees | 15c | 174.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Yankees | 65c | 153.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 32c | 152.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees | 61c | 143$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed New York Yankees | 40c | 129.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…b45abacked New York Yankees | 39c | 117.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked New York Yankees | 31c | 116.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed New York Yankees | 76c | 88.35$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 72.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed New York Yankees | 70c | 54.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…4930backed New York Yankees | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed New York Yankees | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 49.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 39c | 48.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 45.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed New York Yankees | 40c | 44.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 41.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 34.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed New York Yankees | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 30.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Yankees | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 25.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked New York Yankees | 75c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed New York Yankees | 64c | 21.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.