Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74b4a21440afa3c6105f2fd2f8b5e49c9a06a6d60a8f600effde46b708a59aab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 390.06$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 348.62$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.63 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 30c | 333.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 7c | 271$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 258.95$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 8c | 246.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…f128backed Yes | 25c | 157.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 147.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 20c | 137.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 136.73$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 64c | 128.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 17c | 126.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4186…d8a0backed Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 28c | 105$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 101.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…0d9dbacked Yes | 40c | 100.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 26c | 93.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 82.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 81.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 74.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 29c | 70.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebcf…5a66backed Yes | 40c | 66.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 64.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 29c | 62.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 62.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 26c | 58.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 27c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 30c | 53.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 46.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 33c | 44.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 29c | 44.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…9faabacked No | 69c | 34.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…b2eebacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 64c | 33.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 61c | 32.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 66c | 31.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 75c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 73c | 29.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 27.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 72c | 25.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 73c | 22.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 20.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 73c | 18.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b02…2433backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 16.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3a…a88bbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 14.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.