Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeae324fabd3d9d02ecd25532ac2026266882e9fe743d90fe7690d44055e7db15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 343.56$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 55c | 295.15$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.22 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 246.04$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.84 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 46c | 183.08$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 19c | 157.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 12c | 136.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 59c | 126.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 51c | 117.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…0d9dbacked Yes | 50c | 114.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 54c | 111.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 46c | 108.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 22c | 102.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…5a84backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 50c | 99.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 47c | 95.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 47c | 95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 52c | 91.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 49c | 91.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 83.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 41c | 80.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 17c | 76.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 74.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 28c | 58.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 39c | 48.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 25c | 44.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 53c | 43.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 44c | 42.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 46c | 41.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 55c | 38.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 51c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 38c | 33.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 47c | 33.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed Yes | 44c | 32.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 38c | 31.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 30.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 46c | 28.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 52c | 25.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 23.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 21.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 61c | 20.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 53c | 19.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…82aebacked Yes | 72c | 15.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.