Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74c267f204675eb104fdc2280633f71df815ece66d213683b3bb30f389f4ab2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 17c | 2,223$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.27 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 1,392$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 26c | 521.42$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.97 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 420.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 21c | 400.17$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 21c | 379.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…269cbacked Yes | 12c | 373.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 343.03$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 11c | 297.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 18c | 293.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 286.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 17c | 280$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 21c | 225.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 20c | 222.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7452…5f6fbacked No | 78c | 199.98$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 17c | 197.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 20c | 177.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 173.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 77c | 168.33$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 22c | 159.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 12c | 145.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes | 18c | 134.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8605backed Yes | 23c | 132.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 14c | 128.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 17c | 119.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…41afbacked Yes | 18c | 117.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 112.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…2adcbacked Yes | 29c | 104.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 11c | 97.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 22c | 95.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 80c | 94.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 19c | 91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 20c | 88.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 73c | 85.82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 26c | 82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 75.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…efdfbacked Yes | 16c | 71.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 68.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 67c | 61.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 18c | 61.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 33c | 61.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 18c | 59.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 18c | 56.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…81b4backed Yes | 19c | 51.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 80c | 50.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 29c | 49.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…92ccbacked Yes | 42c | 47.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac37…b46bbacked Yes | 32c | 45.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 40.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 58c | 34.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 19.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 79c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 12.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.