Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa32059633e16326c8f311bdf3f0f96a1b4baae855e1e61c09645684dd6f46e30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 799.01$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.31 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 32c | 632.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.32 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 617.68$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 40c | 523.79$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.88 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 55c | 518.49$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.46 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 33c | 515.02$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.25 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 55c | 468.39$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.02 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 449$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 440$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 342.38$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.85 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 263.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 61c | 250$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 43c | 250$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.63 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 40c | 236.9$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.19 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 21c | 227.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.33 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 220.03$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 215.91$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.64 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 57c | 197.43$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.36 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 191$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.71 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 190.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 61c | 184$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.24 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 177.3$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 169$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 60c | 165.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 164.87$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.57 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 160.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 42c | 154$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.32 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 152.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.77 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 42c | 146$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 142.69$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 59c | 138$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 38c | 136.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 131.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 64c | 124.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes | 59c | 119.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 56c | 118.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 61c | 116.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 72c | 112.05$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.59 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 106.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 32c | 104.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 104.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2a…a44dbacked Yes | 23c | 100.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 100.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 38c | 96.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 63c | 96.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 38c | 95.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.06 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 45c | 94.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 61c | 92.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 90.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 90$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 45c | 88.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 38c | 88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 29c | 86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 29c | 86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…6e42backed No | 26c | 85.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 39c | 82.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 42c | 81.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 57c | 81.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…41afbacked Yes | 41c | 80.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…08d4backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 77.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 47c | 67.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 24c | 67.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 31c | 64.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 34c | 64.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 42c | 63.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 74c | 59.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 59.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 57.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked No | 44c | 56.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 32c | 55.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 43c | 54.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 38c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 37c | 53.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 73c | 53.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 57c | 51.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 51.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 80c | 50.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 40c | 50.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 39c | 45.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 39c | 45.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 65c | 44.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 40c | 43.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 28c | 43.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 25c | 41.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…9d00backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.