Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54132eb280bab24bc7b6dae75d27bb4a9f8c26f76659af21df853aceb4b556f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 44c | 1,646$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.08 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 61c | 1,138$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.78 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 1,073$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 748.97$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 627.94$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed No | 72c | 619.57$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.84 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 582.32$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 567.21$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.74 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 20c | 452.4$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 39c | 368.89$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 71c | 347.16$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 325.6$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.42 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 41c | 316.43$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.11 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 17c | 300.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 295.24$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 292$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 31c | 290.86$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.37 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 42c | 275.72$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.92 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 55c | 267.27$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.84 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041a…656dbacked Yes | 68c | 226.92$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 70c | 219.98$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 39c | 208.54$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.21 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 39c | 206.27$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 49c | 206.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.02 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 41c | 204.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.76 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 15c | 195.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 190.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 38c | 185.06$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.97 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 181.63$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 57c | 175.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 24c | 173$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 62c | 169.95$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 32c | 166.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 162.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 157.92$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 153$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 27c | 149.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 59c | 135.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 55c | 134.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 133$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 65c | 129.02$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 44c | 125$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed Yes | 27c | 123.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 123.49$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 39c | 119$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 9c | 118.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 42c | 118.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 51c | 115.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 25c | 114.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 12c | 111.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e20…06c5backed Yes | 37c | 109.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 108$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 39c | 105$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 104$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 103.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 100.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 57c | 92.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 62c | 90.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 58c | 86.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 64c | 80.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 77.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 75.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 40c | 71.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 26c | 70.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 70c | 70.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 69.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 67.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 52c | 66.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…08d4backed Yes | 40c | 64.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f6fbbacked Yes | 71c | 63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 25c | 59.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 44c | 54.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 29c | 53.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 51c | 52.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 40c | 50.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 59c | 49.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 49.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 68c | 46.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…0dd3backed Yes | 40c | 45.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 42.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 69c | 42.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 31c | 41.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.