La Liga · resolved market
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74c46c4c3e998ad93615ea40afd32f99fd57333ccdcd037ad0797a783c9fd208
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa87d…e4bfbacked Under | 23c | 20,267$4,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,737.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 76c | 13,763$10,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,242.6 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 79c | 7,166$5,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.61 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 16c | 4,285$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.84 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 77c | 1,921$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.04 | 571 | 39.2%224 W · 347 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…42f1backed Under | 1c | 1,779$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…885abacked Under | 27c | 1,010$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 19c | 777.41$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 354 | 42.7%151 W · 203 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 77c | 205.19$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 684 | 50.6%346 W · 338 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe875…8492backed Under | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…3ebdbacked Under | 17c | 140.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…7409backed Over | 71c | 134.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 15c | 133.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Over | 72c | 119.01$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eab…7e13backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 19c | 98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…32bcbacked Over | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 75c | 80.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 29c | 73.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 77c | 67.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…c18cbacked Under | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 80c | 48.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 454 | 50%227 W · 227 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Over | 74c | 45.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 240 | 48.3%116 W · 124 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 70c | 35.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Over | 77c | 32.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 261 | 54.4%142 W · 119 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…c024backed Over | 73c | 30.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 79c | 25.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 170 | 61.2%104 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Over | 77c | 23.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 129 | 64.3%83 W · 46 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…f53abacked Over | 66c | 20.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 137 | 60.6%83 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 79c | 19.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 179 | 60.3%108 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 77c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5this page
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-2.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Real Betis Balompié won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5)Real Betis Balompié won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.