MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74d8b912c3b516f330b1b1c4e5d429472092cd9cbb1e2bc966bec5614f3d0451
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 39c | 969.5$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.66 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…71e9backed Under | 70c | 714.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 60c | 466$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.4 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 30c | 440.1$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.28 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 27c | 237.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d7…5fd2backed Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 150 | 79.3%119 W · 31 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Over | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Over | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 60c | 43.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2331…a53dbacked Under | 61c | 32.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 60c | 24.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed Under | 61c | 24.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami MarlinsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.