MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf5a708324f35e02904bd96477f33e5fd3db06ce86cb081bafd28854b40075e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 43c | 95,369$40,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,899.19 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 49,232$29,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,836.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 53c | 14,921$7,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,012.87 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 11,124$5,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,144.91 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,600 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 8,172$4,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,177.57 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 4,230$1,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,945.82 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 53c | 1,515$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.86 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 47c | 1,352$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.44 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…d7e7backed Over | 35c | 1,341$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 46c | 1,315$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.78 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 54c | 1,253$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.38 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 53c | 1,111$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.17 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 53c | 1,050$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.3 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 50c | 888.7$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.45 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 850.27$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 53c | 765.86$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.96 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 62c | 733.74$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.82 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Under | 53c | 668.52$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.2 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 53c | 622.64$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.64 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 53c | 499.76$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.89 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 48c | 469$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.87 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 51c | 454$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.66 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 450.62$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.29 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 50c | 379.61$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.42 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf92…9e59backed Under | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 53c | 270.85$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.96 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 47c | 251.87$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.38 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 50c | 233.58$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.79 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b22…9431backed Under | 54c | 228$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.88 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x378c…14b8backed Under | 68c | 227.57$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 26c | 219.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 53c | 195$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.65 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 59c | 186$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…826ebacked Over | 39c | 160.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 146$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 143.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 137$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 73c | 132.28$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 53c | 128$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 62c | 126.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 46c | 92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 50c | 72.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 53c | 72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…afc3backed Under | 50c | 72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Under | 60c | 64.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…9ac2backed Under | 60c | 63.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 46c | 63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 60c | 62.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 58c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 52c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Under | 58c | 50.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 47c | 43.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 54c | 35.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Under | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Over | 47c | 25.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked Under | 66c | 23.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 51c | 23.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 23.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 61c | 23.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Under | 61c | 22.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 53c | 22.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Over | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami MarlinsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.