MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x089a1eaf5df3fd4e7c4a527898b2e6cea71c8be8ed38614049c2b908a48991aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked No | 70c | 1,704$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.16 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 30c | 688$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.4 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Yes | 31c | 433.55$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 55c | 374.75$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.36 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Yes | 31c | 319.35$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 43c | 237.17$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 30c | 224$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed No | 59c | 205$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 42c | 175$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 41c | 165.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…b596backed No | 59c | 163$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 45c | 97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 41c | 80.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked No | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 56c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 31c | 39.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 64c | 23.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlinsthis page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami MarlinsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.