MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9d34b41f1d38e98ce4c9918df0937fa4e4065d520797418fa862880e6116de6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Cleveland Guardians, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 4,714$1,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.61 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 3,632$2,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.2 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 756.78$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.44 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 510.44$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.2 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 8c | 472$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cleveland Guardians | 10c | 443.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 355.57$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.89 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f5…42cabacked Miami Marlins | 80c | 327.21$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 20c | 266.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 220$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Cleveland Guardians | 22c | 179.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 160.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 140$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 126$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 126$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 73c | 123.14$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 118.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…0dbbbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 93.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 78c | 77.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2206…49d6backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 73.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Miami Marlins | 72c | 61.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Miami Marlins | 72c | 60.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Cleveland Guardians | 20c | 52.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 52.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 50.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Miami Marlins | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 46.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Miami Marlins | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 38.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 37.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 76c | 34.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 33.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Miami Marlins | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Miami Marlins | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 22.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami MarlinsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.