Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 1win vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7525054c58eb221e9070702f3d52c529cf53f2f06405f4a2481c695feb82c3ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof 1win, paiN Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,253 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe491…ccd1backed paiN Gaming | 8c | 6,972$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.42 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked 1win | 39c | 600$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed paiN Gaming | 13c | 573.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked 1win | 42c | 562.06$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.44 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed 1win | 48c | 396.45$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.54 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed 1win | 54c | 389.11$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.03 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…41b3backed paiN Gaming | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 173 | 23.1%40 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…898bbacked 1win | 38c | 264$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.68 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed 1win | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1986…a434backed 1win | 40c | 254.28$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed 1win | 48c | 209.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.58 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed 1win | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.28 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed 1win | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked 1win | 48c | 106.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked paiN Gaming | 37c | 86.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked paiN Gaming | 46c | 86.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed paiN Gaming | 49c | 64.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed 1win | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked paiN Gaming | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed 1win | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed 1win | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…3855backed paiN Gaming | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 37.6%65 W · 108 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…1867backed paiN Gaming | 49c | 26.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 1win vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: 1win vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CCT Playoffs1win won
- Dota 2: 1win vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner1win won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.