TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: 1win vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
1winof 1win, paiN Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,790

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,790 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf99e…4d03backed paiN Gaming1c7,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed 1win32c5,092$1,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,442.9951049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05c…66b9backed paiN Gaming1c5,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4b…556bbacked paiN Gaming2c4,400$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed paiN Gaming51c3,490$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,779.8922647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked 1win47c2,603$1,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,37636759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked paiN Gaming44c1,341$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.721,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed paiN Gaming54c1,004$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.7951751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed paiN Gaming1c1,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141040%0 W · 104 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7da4…f0a4backed paiN Gaming1c936.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.361435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.20per pick16cpaid+93.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed 1win49c864.9$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.9946649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed paiN Gaming65c845.3$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.431,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 1win27c776.51$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.172,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed paiN Gaming54c765.58$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.7352243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3860…bda6backed 1win30c649.42$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed paiN Gaming52c644.23$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3359254.3%50 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab1…9b4fbacked 1win54c629.63$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.638048.8%39 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed paiN Gaming50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20028244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked 1win59c386.76$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.2999844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked 1win45c373$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.6540534.6%140 W · 265 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed 1win23c361.29$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.2923050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 1win39c359.31$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.522,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked paiN Gaming60c338.33$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20336654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed paiN Gaming51c269.62$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.666662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed paiN Gaming19c262$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1265337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x126a…2e3ebacked 1win48c227.84$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.781668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked 1win47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.771,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd15e…db59backed 1win69c209.25$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.8711845.8%54 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedd1…45a9backed paiN Gaming16c207$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.371540%6 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+108.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe6d…9d6abacked 1win49c204.76$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.434065%26 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed paiN Gaming18c200$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3318248.9%89 W · 93 L+15.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked 1win55c200$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.7777458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd7e4…15eebacked paiN Gaming12c187$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.371421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed paiN Gaming14c182$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7625351.4%130 W · 123 L+23.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa423…d3dfbacked paiN Gaming14c162$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.931442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed 1win47c150$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.547951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed paiN Gaming31c140$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4330250%151 W · 151 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf456…3855backed paiN Gaming55c127.27$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7017337.6%65 W · 108 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win31c116.49$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.482,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked 1win14c116.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.8842145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed paiN Gaming63c82.06$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.451,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed 1win49c81.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6341037.3%153 W · 257 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed paiN Gaming67c70.51$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0257654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x256e…1867backed 1win49c51.03$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.031353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked 1win35c39.69$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6818746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed 1win47c37.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7346049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed 1win29c36.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.851,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x00b7…5b93backed paiN Gaming54c35.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.558852.3%46 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c67…e838backed 1win38c30.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.132544%11 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed paiN Gaming64c30.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.713943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e76…95cdbacked paiN Gaming42c29.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.491752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked paiN Gaming43c27.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1222740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb11a…a5d9backed 1win68c27.19$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.774551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee59…e42abacked paiN Gaming48c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1228846.9%135 W · 153 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked paiN Gaming53c22.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1233854.1%183 W · 155 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x81fe…4089backed paiN Gaming58c20.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9913262.9%83 W · 49 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d2f…1bffbacked paiN Gaming50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1620…227bbacked paiN Gaming63c19.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1213762.8%86 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.