TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$185,007
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$186,343

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,007 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over57c119,535$68,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,105.722832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.1wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under43c41,612$18,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,607.11,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under53c29,989$16,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,985.863,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb328…4df1backed Under43c22,000$9,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,540580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+63.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Under43c16,432$7,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,375.34450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over54c10,000$5,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,409.7833244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under43c8,719$3,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,969.610553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under43c8,030$3,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,577.3338748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under43c6,428$2,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,650.451,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be7…8131backed Over0c6,158$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x127f…8a29backed Over24c3,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7203520%7 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Under56c2,625$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15516647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f6…71eebacked Over31c2,499$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.69922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under44c2,300$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.995145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Over53c2,073$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over56c1,977$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.1922747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under43c1,912$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.935856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Under44c1,820$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.165133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under45c1,786$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.0656547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00a0…bf76backed Over15c1,667$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.993740.5%15 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under43c1,628$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.969459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under45c1,286$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.722,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Under43c1,160$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick38cpaid+58.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x219e…14d9backed Over56c900$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50413461.9%83 W · 51 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1080…142abacked Over36c835.16$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.62520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Over23c812$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.147722.1%17 W · 60 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5d0…1d70backed Over56c639.26$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over56c582.14$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3268246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over56c482.14$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27018759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd239…2083backed Under45c444.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.443158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Over56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over56c349.6$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.7814756.5%83 W · 64 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1683857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bcf…402abacked Over10c299.91$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.979123.1%21 W · 70 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008955.1%49 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7e…cbbdbacked Over54c222.22$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under47c201.95$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.581,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9853645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…6711backed Over49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984975.5%37 W · 12 L+8.2wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+26.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under63c196.28$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.621,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d7…73a1backed Over57c192.56$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.77425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under43c191$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.8730054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2303…b9a7backed Under45c186.2$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.41850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f51…41edbacked Over54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Under45c171.94$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7476234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under43c152.37$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.8522854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under43c150$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.55752.6%30 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under43c150$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.524258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Over55c145.45$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805354.7%29 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38b0…060cbacked Over57c123$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.111650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under43c115$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5514355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under43c112$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8415453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed Over36c110.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6610728%30 W · 77 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec8d…453dbacked Over57c105.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc5…a45bbacked Over56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4238845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1842…b628backed Under78c97.04$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.35560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Under44c90.82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.869658.3%56 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under43c90$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.312356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under43c90$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.312858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020957.4%120 W · 89 L-0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b40…6255backed Over57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Over57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d7…0ed9backed Over57c86.61$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.37540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over58c86.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012069.2%83 W · 37 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked Under45c80$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under43c80$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.663645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under43c74.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7510855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb166…3105backed Under44c70$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.21540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Under44c70$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5321051.4%108 W · 102 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23d3…eb28backed Over58c68.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under45c67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.131,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Under44c60.6$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9418353%97 W · 86 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Under43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.212259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Under43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.211458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.213859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Under43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.211259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.212458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.212657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.212358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.213254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Under43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.29159.3%54 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Over39c55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.46435.9%23 W · 41 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over56c53.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013754%74 W · 63 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1aa…071abacked Over56c53.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304161%25 W · 16 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8e3…05e1backed Over56c51.79$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f26…14f0backed Over56c51.78$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292040%8 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9e7…0365backed Over58c51.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.4wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-56%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Under43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.512757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Under43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.58952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4984…7aaabacked Under45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.52642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7b5…798cbacked Under43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.58155.6%45 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Under45c48.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9425850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205547.3%26 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfad3…0a3abacked Over57c48.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa639…f5e8backed Over56c48.21$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2714758.5%86 W · 61 L+15.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+30.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0f85…87d5backed Under45c46.73$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.556055%33 W · 27 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xefef…cd06backed Over56c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.41776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+33.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1611744.4%52 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd03b…856cbacked Under43c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.87057.1%40 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.