Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68ae2a8e499bc0d9053406312e985793bed160e123ef1b597ef6c82dbcc0495f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes | 61c | 990.96$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 920.13$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.89 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Yes | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 69c | 405.8$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 10c | 336.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes | 20c | 318$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 63c | 127.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Yes | 58c | 97.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 45c | 94.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.17 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 41c | 88.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658c…14f7backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…339abacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…5f1dbacked Yes | 14c | 79.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 58c | 67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Yes | 20c | 64.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 39c | 61.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf448…64cabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…2e72backed Yes | 26c | 46.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 46c | 40.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…3105backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 42c | 39.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f26…14f0backed Yes | 58c | 36.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f32…3e18backed No | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 44c | 30.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…23c6backed Yes | 57c | 20.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.