Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37591873521e334e7356224ab5fdf7563ac9d7b25be46a8cb14ff293be412e0a

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $39,639
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $38,168

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,639 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	56c	9,116$5,070 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,045.2	3,284	42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L	-74.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	20c	6,296$1,261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,035.84	1,681	45.2%759 W · 922 L	+6.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	45c	4,597$2,072 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,524.36	1,355	50.9%690 W · 665 L	+12.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3790…5e8bbacked Over	65c	3,875$2,515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,515	28	75%21 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	72cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1414…ae7bbacked Over	80c	3,750$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	68cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x127f…8a29backed Over	14c	3,000$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.94	35	20%7 W · 28 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5905…a34cbacked Over	64c	2,827$1,813 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,813.45	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+12%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Over	51c	2,442$1,254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,253.51	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x219e…14d9backed Over	80c	1,888$1,510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,510.4	134	61.9%83 W · 51 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	53c	1,844$984 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$859.63	2,538	39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L	-8.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3060…c709backed Over	78c	1,544$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	72cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Under	20c	1,500$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,200	277	26.4%73 W · 204 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	54c	1,493$803 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$690.25	536	45.9%246 W · 290 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbffe…e4efbacked Over	43c	999.99$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf42d…b35cbacked Over	46c	991.43$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.33	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	42cpaid	-41%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x832c…c46ebacked Over	41c	696.82$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.36	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-4.2wins	-0.25per pick	36cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbec3…760ebacked Over	42c	663.96$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.8	30	76.7%23 W · 7 L	+3.5wins	+0.12per pick	65cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x00a0…bf76backed Over	40c	624.99$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	+2.9wins	+0.08per pick	33cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa445…6711backed Over	49c	466.94$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.8	49	75.5%37 W · 12 L	+8.2wins	+0.17per pick	59cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Under	25c	437.65$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.66	762	34.8%265 W · 497 L	+9.4wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over	80c	407.5$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326	63	66.7%42 W · 21 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	72cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd5f…8a9bbacked Over	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+35.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eca…576bbacked Over	43c	385.92$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.36	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.27per pick	61cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Over	60c	383.33$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	380	55.8%212 W · 168 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over	70c	344.81$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	142	60.6%86 W · 56 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…d7a0backed Over	32c	294.67$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.29	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c8f…d581backed Over	35c	263.57$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.2	73	38.4%28 W · 45 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8bb…d88fbacked Under	20c	250$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+150%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Over	65c	250$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.3	225	62.2%140 W · 85 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Over	35c	230$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.5	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.24per pick	43cpaid	+43.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over	19c	210.53$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	271	42.8%116 W · 155 L	+18.5wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9db0…0f6abacked Over	38c	200$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	53	56.6%30 W · 23 L	+4.8wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+20%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7cb1…984ebacked Over	70c	200$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e6…84a8backed Under	60c	200$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	60	53.3%32 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over	80c	187.5$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	209	57.4%120 W · 89 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Over	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Under	20c	167.83$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.26	311	45%140 W · 171 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over	65c	153.85$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	89	55.1%49 W · 40 L	+4.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over	36c	138.89$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	118	57.6%68 W · 50 L	+15.7wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0497…c5e3backed Over	18c	138.6$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a7f…5dcebacked Over	21c	111$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.92	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over	69c	100$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	388	45.6%177 W · 211 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0082…e801backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Over	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	64	35.9%23 W · 41 L	-7.6wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x9154…8f2dbacked Over	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	59	42.4%25 W · 34 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa990…5f1dbacked Over	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	95	48.4%46 W · 49 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	221	57%126 W · 95 L	+10.6wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1783…7180backed Over	21c	95.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75cd…61a6backed Under	71c	91.64$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.18	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b5f…b7e9backed Under	22c	90.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.9	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over	68c	84.99$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.79	253	52.2%132 W · 121 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	21c	81.27$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.6	636	45.1%287 W · 349 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	69c	70$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.82	215	40.9%88 W · 127 L	-15.5wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b82…7f3cbacked Over	20c	70$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf788…6f86backed Over	74c	67.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	90	68.9%62 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	69cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d4…3691backed Over	79c	63.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	44	68.2%30 W · 14 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	64cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebcd…eff0backed Over	65c	61.31$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.85	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6596…b50bbacked Over	80c	56.25$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	77cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5df7…29c5backed Over	72c	55.56$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	10	70%7 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	70cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over	79c	50.39$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	130	73.1%95 W · 35 L	+9.9wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over	68c	50$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	117	44.4%52 W · 65 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x522f…1415backed Over	80c	50$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	65	83.1%54 W · 11 L	+7.6wins	+0.12per pick	71cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae6f…a3aabacked Over	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed Over	80c	45$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	69	55.1%38 W · 31 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec15…665fbacked Over	45c	44.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fa1…bf73backed Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	77	58.4%45 W · 32 L	+5.2wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4a7…bc03backed Over	80c	37.89$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.31	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	79cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc460…0aa4backed Over	45c	37.78$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-3.4wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	46c	37.59$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.39	1,305	40.8%532 W · 773 L	-42.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d54…81a1backed Over	33c	36.42$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	46	58.7%27 W · 19 L	+4.7wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Over	49c	32$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Over	79c	31.65$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	130	66.9%87 W · 43 L	+8.8wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbcd6…a082backed Over	76c	31.58$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	72cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8651…2465backed Over	80c	31.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	76cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over	65c	30.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	66.7%26 W · 13 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca4a…338abacked Under	60c	30.63$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.25	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over	73c	30$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	381	51.4%196 W · 185 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef20…2646backed Over	80c	30$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	62cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f6f…5a01backed Over	80c	27$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	74cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e5c…7b2bbacked Under	63c	25.86$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.47	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Over	79c	25.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	90	67.8%61 W · 29 L	+4.4wins	+0.05per pick	63cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e9…736dbacked Over	80c	25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	64%16 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	70cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1036…fb48backed Under	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	66cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ee…a848backed Over	65c	25$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.25	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4680…e592backed Over	69c	24.64$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	30	60%18 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	64cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3317…166abacked Over	80c	18.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x482c…cbe8backed Over	80c	18.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	67cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfacd…d470backed Over	75c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	37	78.4%29 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	74cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over	75c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	86	60.5%52 W · 34 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	62cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd272…2856backed Over	80c	12.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	61cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Over	80c	12.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-3.4wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5this page
FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5Under won
FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Under won
FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event