Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7536a72612a0370992626ac2abab735eb865c7a2631b4927ea4b116b778434bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 628.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 41c | 322.46$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.11 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 50c | 262.44$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.07 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 250$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 206.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 71c | 144.47$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 142.05$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 135.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 112.06$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 110.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 697 | 35.3%246 W · 451 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 94.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 93.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 64c | 81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…3eddbacked No | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 68.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 64.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…6c98backed Yes | 29c | 63.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 62.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed No | 48c | 56.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 34c | 55.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 67c | 54.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 54.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 45c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 725 | 42.2%306 W · 419 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3424…6b9fbacked No | 67c | 50.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…945ebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 58c | 49.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb395…522bbacked Yes | 28c | 48.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 68c | 46.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 41c | 43.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 59c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 67c | 39.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 42c | 37.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 34.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 67c | 31.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 781 | 51.9%405 W · 376 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 31.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 44c | 31.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 31.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 30.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 63c | 21.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.