Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebc42469a747c5f3a2ea4f1016e312330f2616425d12840ebe55f0455b20d6b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 51c | 914.7$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.45 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 56c | 728.22$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.65 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…2e64backed No | 58c | 537.59$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.27 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 39c | 433.49$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.65 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 58c | 342.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.29 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 56c | 313.13$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.86 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 276.72$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 49c | 274.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 32c | 268.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.23 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 229.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 57c | 219$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.69 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 201.45$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 194.79$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 47c | 161.05$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 22c | 159.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 64c | 156$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 142.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked No | 16c | 126.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x680a…0a15backed No | 17c | 120.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes | 59c | 119.54$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 118.45$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 14c | 113.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 45c | 112$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 111.27$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed No | 47c | 104.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 43c | 100.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 47c | 98.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 86.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 62c | 85.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 83.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 62c | 80.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 19c | 77.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 64c | 76.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 31c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 41c | 51.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 70c | 48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 60c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 63c | 43.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 68c | 42.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 37c | 41.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 46c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 57c | 38.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed No | 53c | 38.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 33c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 70c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 36c | 33.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…4ccabacked No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 52c | 26.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 26.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 74c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 74c | 26.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed No | 70c | 26.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 52c | 22.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.