Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75622d21c7e8200e263fce8593640bf7d9002506f32a6af0101dc213b8fe07e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 53c | 263.16$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.37 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 43c | 199.81$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 164.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 139.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 78c | 126.54$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 123.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 21c | 119.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 119.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 106.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 32c | 103.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 36c | 103$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 43c | 102$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 96.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 67c | 96.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 44c | 94.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 48c | 81.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 79c | 69.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 67.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 45c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 59c | 61.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 55c | 61.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 60.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 59.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 40c | 57.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 43c | 57.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 54.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 53.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 53.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 63c | 47.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba3…737cbacked Yes | 36c | 46.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 73c | 44.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 58c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 76c | 41.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 30c | 41.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 53c | 40.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 63c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 36.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa594…91e8backed Yes | 55c | 36.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 54c | 36.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 71c | 35.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 67c | 35.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 61c | 32.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 63c | 30.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 27.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 79c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 64c | 23.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 55c | 22.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 20.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 60c | 19.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 19.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 76c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.