Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75a648a16442f6b63f6f757a9c4c96af65a9da7e843467e46192e565ec3eb153
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaab0…6364backed Yes | 49c | 4,016$1,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,063.45 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…da90backed No | 54c | 1,005$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 61c | 450$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.1 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 36c | 409.37$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.52 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 265.05$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.53 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 39c | 251.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.64 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 221.91$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 218.13$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.58 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 216.2$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 51c | 203.18$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.98 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 37c | 162.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 161.18$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 58c | 161.13$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 148.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 141.97$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 48c | 120.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 116.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 48c | 102.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 37c | 93.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…50eabacked Yes | 52c | 80.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5536…70ebbacked Yes | 38c | 76.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 64.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 51c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 59c | 59.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 38c | 55.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 55c | 54.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 55c | 54.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe86…9b6bbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 49.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 62c | 49.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 66c | 45.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 51c | 44.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 43.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 38c | 43.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…64f8backed Yes | 43c | 42.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked Yes | 33c | 42.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…54c7backed No | 39c | 38.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c3…eba4backed Yes | 53c | 37.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 64c | 37.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 57c | 35.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 55c | 35.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 43c | 34.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 36c | 34.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 58c | 33.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 31c | 32.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 63c | 31.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…bcf9backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 43c | 29.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 66c | 28.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 69c | 25.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ca…0022backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 24.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…a1febacked No | 63c | 23.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 52c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 64c | 21.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…c990backed No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 63c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.