Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75c6d950feaccfbf88023cc473076bcb1c3decc3427d4073479b98510554cd0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 6,412$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.58 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 1c | 5,580$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.18 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 1c | 3,699$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,753$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…80c9backed Yes | 24c | 2,749$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.01 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 11c | 2,035$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.03 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 1,257$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 1,143$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf30…6a42backed Yes | 13c | 1,034$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 8c | 800$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 5c | 600$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…7ea9backed Yes | 10c | 508.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc56…5886backed No | 78c | 450$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +215.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 23c | 385.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 333.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 22c | 304.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…35ddbacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…c739backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 5c | 299.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 5c | 299.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0197…ea5cbacked Yes | 24c | 252.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed Yes | 14c | 230.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd29…fd24backed Yes | 28c | 227$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 6c | 221$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…c7b0backed No | 80c | 220.87$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 16c | 219.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 197.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 22c | 176.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 26c | 155$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2a…9baabacked No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 16c | 149.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 74c | 130.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…f779backed Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 16c | 109.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…459bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ea…6434backed Yes | 21c | 97.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…89fbbacked Yes | 39c | 95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…ad27backed Yes | 21c | 94.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 60c | 78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 24c | 71.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…fc73backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 71c | 58.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…83dcbacked Yes | 22c | 50.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 27c | 45.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 75c | 43.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73c…3201backed No | 73c | 40.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2e…f81ebacked No | 80c | 32.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…c90ebacked No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d75…ee2abacked No | 78c | 18.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or below on November 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or higher on November 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on November 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.