Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8daa8e3a0d6ad3a9e8d61add24d93f7ffcd3c61bc2842fc95d7417b80ca576d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 1,461$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 66c | 1,095$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de1…6707backed Yes | 70c | 942.63$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…abdfbacked No | 13c | 800.31$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 63c | 676.59$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.76 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x138b…0467backed No | 33c | 568.7$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…0339backed Yes | 64c | 508.47$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.42 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 38c | 465.25$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.36 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 64c | 394.92$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.33 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed No | 37c | 327.67$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 73c | 326$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.69 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 69c | 315$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 79c | 308.42$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa170…1737backed Yes | 69c | 304.86$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…c7b0backed Yes | 69c | 302.54$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.76 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 68c | 299.99$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 65c | 245.06$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…f779backed Yes | 74c | 227.62$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 69c | 217.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 58c | 216.1$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 28c | 201.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…ee83backed Yes | 66c | 196.2$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…7d07backed Yes | 58c | 171.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 70c | 155.14$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…ad27backed Yes | 69c | 130.59$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf760…bf84backed No | 37c | 109.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 47c | 108.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 20c | 103.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec72…d655backed Yes | 68c | 102.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 33c | 101.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…02f5backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…c960backed Yes | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 32c | 95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…89fbbacked Yes | 63c | 95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 75c | 91.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…459bbacked Yes | 54c | 85.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 80.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Yes | 64c | 79.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 38c | 78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 52c | 70.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…0fd7backed Yes | 62c | 64.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 41c | 63.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…441dbacked Yes | 53c | 61.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 48c | 56.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fe…9182backed Yes | 67c | 56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…c338backed Yes | 67c | 54.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…3f52backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 53c | 46.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed Yes | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 31c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…0b71backed Yes | 54c | 37.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 51c | 36.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5963backed Yes | 65c | 34.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…8963backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3eb…a42ebacked Yes | 65c | 32.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 68c | 31.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…9575backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd392…b7bcbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…bed4backed Yes | 73c | 27.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972c…c2e2backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…cfedbacked Yes | 64c | 26.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…f0febacked Yes | 65c | 23.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…43c0backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…c90ebacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…b968backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a56…fbdcbacked Yes | 67c | 18.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or below on November 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or higher on November 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on November 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.