Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x996af7853cdff05e51d72eafea2a6b9a9678eea039ec0b88a4a45eda922fa64f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 1c | 8,043$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 3,433$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 2c | 1,812$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 1c | 1,531$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 2c | 911.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed Yes | 14c | 824.19$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.32 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 16c | 674.34$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 535.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 79c | 511.37$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 481.22$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 10c | 303.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 26c | 298.66$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.18 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…e004backed Yes | 18c | 276.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e5…e161backed Yes | 21c | 263.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 18c | 219.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…ad27backed Yes | 19c | 215.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 14c | 210$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…0339backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…7ea9backed Yes | 13c | 199.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 15c | 183.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 183.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed Yes | 15c | 178.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…ee83backed Yes | 14c | 171$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 13c | 145$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 136.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 15c | 115.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes | 22c | 111.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 106.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…437cbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 14c | 97.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 207 | 28%58 W · 149 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 16c | 79.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 23%26 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 20c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 28c | 60.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…459bbacked Yes | 20c | 60.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed No | 79c | 30.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or below on November 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or higher on November 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on November 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.