Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75c92f95939a86ecd0d16c715b7708f746953dfafbc5d861b85e1d0df280bcb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked No | 2c | 2,122$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 77c | 1,092$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.85 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 36c | 617.8$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.91 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 28c | 509.76$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 39c | 374.17$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.57 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 77c | 340.81$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 40c | 309.53$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.81 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 309$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.61 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 31c | 292.48$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…4b79backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 227.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 8c | 200.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 13c | 196.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 193.18$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.01 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 22c | 184.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 58c | 180.83$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 173.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 163.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 160.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed Yes | 21c | 159$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.61 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 22c | 157.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.52 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 152.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 65c | 145.65$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 41c | 141.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 35c | 123.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 114.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 35c | 109.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 109.31$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 28c | 108.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 59c | 106.54$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 14c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 23c | 87.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 24c | 85.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 29c | 78.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 61.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 33c | 61.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 56.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 32c | 55.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 40c | 50.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 47.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 37c | 45.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 31c | 37.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…dccfbacked No | 76c | 35.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9c…3681backed Yes | 80c | 35.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 33.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 50c | 24.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…26aabacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 19.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 65c | 18.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.