Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7621cd2368414ba20706b489402db3be000ef37a5107ae941b71f2732a228a99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked No | 21c | 1,600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.34 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…c236backed Yes | 80c | 1,006$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.25 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 7c | 688.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 4c | 579.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 14c | 537.88$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 445.9$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 23c | 432.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 80c | 376.08$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…ad2cbacked Yes | 79c | 295.14$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 30c | 166.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122f…cd00backed Yes | 77c | 154.02$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed No | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4674…03cabacked Yes | 79c | 117.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb01a…a222backed No | 19c | 105.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3119…a6d9backed Yes | 78c | 101.52$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 30c | 93.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Yes | 79c | 92.11$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549a…670abacked No | 17c | 91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 76c | 83.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 36c | 58.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 76c | 55.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 66c | 53.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…288dbacked Yes | 70c | 52.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…8c4dbacked No | 49c | 50.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb2…1080backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 45c | 41.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 40c | 37.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed Yes | 66c | 35.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 57c | 34.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d24…fd43backed Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ccddbacked No | 70c | 23.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 72c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c18…f53abacked Yes | 71c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…24fcbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 66cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1e…eb72backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.