Mls · resolved market
Will Colorado Rapids SC vs. Austin FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7668057be6e73434584de936f643782844a80b81b421ae0dea21b2863d1ec6a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 33c | 7,402$2,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,442.71 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 67c | 3,286$2,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.3 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 7c | 1,104$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 22c | 1,005$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.9 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…a196backed Yes | 2c | 833.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 72c | 736.12$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.83 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 31c | 731.5$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.16 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed No | 22c | 700.63$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.39 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Yes | 5c | 597$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed No | 69c | 576.45$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.49 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 506.53$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.01 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked No | 69c | 436.68$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.71 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked No | 62c | 349.22$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.73 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 76c | 329.09$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.98 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 66c | 270.83$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 33c | 250.25$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 39c | 223.09$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.51 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 211.41$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…18cdbacked Yes | 45c | 190$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked No | 66c | 188.33$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 33c | 180.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 37c | 172.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 166.58$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…7bc1backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Yes | 34c | 138.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Yes | 34c | 138.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed No | 69c | 102.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked No | 76c | 95.07$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 24c | 79.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 76c | 78.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…9488backed Yes | 24c | 71.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 67c | 65.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 67c | 65.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed No | 67c | 57.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 61c | 49.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Yes | 24c | 46.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 67c | 39.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb446…46ebbacked Yes | 56c | 35.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 67c | 33.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Yes | 34c | 29.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 67c | 26.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 22.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed No | 75c | 18.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 76c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Colorado Rapids SC vs. Austin FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-08-01?No won
- Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-08-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.