Tennis · resolved market
Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x767e9952a9babeb11504b012f604d9b528dcdc6ecb9cfb49e076411d906fb368
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,353 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 1c | 5,511$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211d…3ab7backed Over | 50c | 399.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 179 | 55.9%100 W · 79 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 50c | 301.29$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.64 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8874…0fa6backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 41c | 169.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 347 | 45.2%157 W · 190 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 165.65$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…2c78backed Under | 61c | 92.85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -67%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 54c | 65.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41f…6100backed Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 112 | 34.8%39 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 38c | 35.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…d9c6backed Under | 58c | 30.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 55c | 28.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0a…caf5backed Over | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5this page
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil MedvedevDaniil Medvedev won
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs MedvedevMedvedev won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Medvedev (+1.5)Medvedev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.