Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Medvedev (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb47e73916b3bc66ff3a2465f9d92a52b3d62c9c61de6bd2632dea69628f9fe66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Alcaraz, Medvedev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,625 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad5c…664abacked Alcaraz | 63c | 3,542$2,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,231.27 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Alcaraz | 61c | 3,400$2,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,072.12 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Medvedev | 37c | 2,673$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.19 | 7,774 | 47.8%3,715 W · 4,059 L | +40.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…d83abacked Medvedev | 37c | 1,570$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991 | 131 | 35.9%47 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…f991backed Alcaraz | 63c | 1,299$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.86 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Alcaraz | 57c | 1,227$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 369 | 68%251 W · 118 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Alcaraz | 63c | 1,204$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…820fbacked Medvedev | 39c | 1,200$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Medvedev | 80c | 1,032$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.64 | 247 | 59.9%148 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Alcaraz | 64c | 896.88$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Medvedev | 39c | 775$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.75 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Medvedev | 46c | 750$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…d461backed Alcaraz | 54c | 747.07$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Medvedev | 38c | 657.19$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.71 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Medvedev | 40c | 656.78$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.66 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Medvedev | 42c | 643.57$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.57 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Medvedev | 42c | 639.56$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.2 | 9,406 | 44.3%4,171 W · 5,235 L | -245.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Medvedev | 47c | 623.34$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.76 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Alcaraz | 25c | 595.15$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.63 | 1,384 | 16.5%228 W · 1,156 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…df40backed Medvedev | 60c | 593.47$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.89 | 238 | 47.1%112 W · 126 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…71e9backed Alcaraz | 63c | 546.03$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Medvedev | 37c | 483.19$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.41 | 3,891 | 35%1,362 W · 2,529 L | +93.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed Alcaraz | 63c | 422.7$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Medvedev | 37c | 368.79$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.23 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Medvedev | 42c | 349.33$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.61 | 851 | 57.6%490 W · 361 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Medvedev | 39c | 342.56$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.96 | 428 | 43.7%187 W · 241 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…d27abacked Medvedev | 47c | 320.71$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.39 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Medvedev | 41c | 307$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…07f5backed Alcaraz | 63c | 306.35$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Medvedev | 37c | 270.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Medvedev | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8b57backed Alcaraz | 62c | 236.55$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.66 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Medvedev | 39c | 220$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.2 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cd…9973backed Alcaraz | 60c | 208.09$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…f77ebacked Alcaraz | 61c | 198.07$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Medvedev | 54c | 197.3$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.81 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…bf20backed Medvedev | 52c | 193.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.86 | 95 | 26.3%25 W · 70 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Medvedev | 40c | 187.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Alcaraz | 62c | 170.22$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.06 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Alcaraz | 63c | 159.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…f968backed Alcaraz | 63c | 158.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x759c…05e2backed Alcaraz | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Alcaraz | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Medvedev | 37c | 137.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.72 | 4,090 | 39.8%1,628 W · 2,462 L | +95.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Medvedev | 37c | 137$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44dc…2ddbbacked Medvedev | 40c | 119.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…0b29backed Medvedev | 55c | 116.35$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Alcaraz | 62c | 104.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Alcaraz | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 255 | 46.3%118 W · 137 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…92bebacked Alcaraz | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Medvedev | 40c | 95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…7eacbacked Alcaraz | 25c | 80.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…2a03backed Alcaraz | 63c | 58.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked Medvedev | 39c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc7…f1b8backed Alcaraz | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Medvedev | 38c | 39.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 7,201 | 49.7%3,577 W · 3,624 L | +114.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Medvedev | 38c | 34.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…3e60backed Alcaraz | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…2aa6backed Medvedev | 68c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Medvedev | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Medvedev | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…4848backed Alcaraz | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9115…b9febacked Alcaraz | 62c | 25.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68f…58edbacked Alcaraz | 63c | 25.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…67e2backed Alcaraz | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Alcaraz | 55c | 22.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…2b95backed Alcaraz | 62c | 21.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Alcaraz | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Alcaraz | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1619…ca7bbacked Alcaraz | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Medvedev (+1.5)this page
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil MedvedevDaniil Medvedev won
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs MedvedevMedvedev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.