Tennis · resolved market
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a6a960f660b195f785ca7a2baf7192f117892c9189521c4debff78f6f911b26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,420 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over 2.5 | 1c | 5,511$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 1,926 | 55.4%1,067 W · 859 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under 2.5 | 12c | 3,135$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,763.15 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 66c | 1,175$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.35 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ee…7e3abacked Over 2.5 | 34c | 689.16$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe55a…da97backed Under 2.5 | 34c | 591.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over 2.5 | 63c | 467.58$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.79 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Over 2.5 | 73c | 395.52$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.54 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58b…cba8backed Over 2.5 | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf906…b98ebacked Over 2.5 | 36c | 280.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe454…8b7dbacked Over 2.5 | 80c | 252.02$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under 2.5 | 39c | 201.86$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.62 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Over 2.5 | 34c | 176.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…6679backed Under 2.5 | 72c | 139.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef27…bd29backed Under 2.5 | 29c | 121.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.72 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Over 2.5 | 33c | 120.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 646 | 37.2%240 W · 406 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Under 2.5 | 36c | 112.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…1ab0backed Under 2.5 | 39c | 83.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 945 | 49.6%469 W · 476 L | -23.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3d…efefbacked Over 2.5 | 72c | 80.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 71cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 2.5 | 66c | 71.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21af…f272backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 55.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…202abacked Over 2.5 | 64c | 46.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…5b3abacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Under 2.5 | 40c | 42.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Over 2.5 | 52c | 38.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Under 2.5 | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 184 | 30.4%56 W · 128 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Over 2.5 | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over 2.5 | 48c | 30.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Under 2.5 | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil MedvedevDaniil Medvedev won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs MedvedevMedvedev won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Medvedev (+1.5)Medvedev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.