Tennis · resolved market
Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16e154e17c1d9728393bf42ad92bb07317649e64f6c6f9c978c04c34a251d6bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,663 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 48c | 1,269$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.31 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Over | 62c | 999.98$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.96 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Over | 51c | 965.5$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.58 | 464 | 73.3%340 W · 124 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 52c | 442.31$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.31 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 46c | 419.61$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.68 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 365.76$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.41 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Over | 48c | 299.9$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.95 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Over | 50c | 298.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.27 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 52c | 271.15$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 38c | 227.06$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.28 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…e3c9backed Over | 52c | 192.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…6679backed Under | 54c | 186.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 185.35$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Over | 56c | 179.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 721 | 32%231 W · 490 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21af…f272backed Over | 62c | 160.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 13c | 158.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Under | 50c | 155$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 51c | 132.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Under | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 39.4%50 W · 77 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Over | 51c | 126.69$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 13c | 118.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Over | 47c | 109.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 255 | 46.3%118 W · 137 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Under | 13c | 93.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac1…d5c4backed Under | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…f39abacked Over | 51c | 77.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 606 | 61.2%371 W · 235 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…2de0backed Over | 52c | 74.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a8…d0e7backed Over | 63c | 63.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…969abacked Under | 38c | 61.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…53bcbacked Over | 51c | 52.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Under | 53c | 40.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50c…4af1backed Under | 53c | 38.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbc…d46fbacked Under | 50c | 34.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 44c | 29.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…2aa6backed Under | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa7…2bb4backed Over | 49c | 28.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Under | 51c | 26.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil MedvedevDaniil Medvedev won
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs MedvedevMedvedev won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Medvedev (+1.5)Medvedev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.