Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Medvedev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf290d4b9e0b3840d7a1e86ce0c5525d7cef9289e0e0673f85e8aae75df916c68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Alcaraz, Medvedev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,780 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b62…6137backed Alcaraz | 46c | 624.49$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Medvedev | 23c | 600$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21af…f272backed Medvedev | 49c | 484.52$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.29 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f50…8341backed Medvedev | 78c | 418.06$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.56 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc58b…cba8backed Alcaraz | 24c | 417.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8b57backed Alcaraz | 77c | 408$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.16 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Alcaraz | 31c | 382.29$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Medvedev | 22c | 371.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.84 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Alcaraz | 69c | 301.59$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.89 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Alcaraz | 78c | 256.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Medvedev | 70c | 229.24$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Medvedev | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Alcaraz | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Alcaraz | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 310 | 39.4%122 W · 188 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Medvedev | 22c | 186.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.66 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Medvedev | 55c | 183.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Alcaraz | 24c | 164.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Medvedev | 23c | 154$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.68 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Alcaraz | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Alcaraz | 73c | 138.89$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Medvedev | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Alcaraz | 44c | 108.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Medvedev | 27c | 101.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…99febacked Alcaraz | 23c | 101.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca9…cc9ebacked Medvedev | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96cb…75cbbacked Alcaraz | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 114 | 26.3%30 W · 84 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…1e38backed Medvedev | 41c | 68.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Medvedev | 60c | 56.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdce…82c4backed Alcaraz | 75c | 54.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Medvedev | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…5ff6backed Alcaraz | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Medvedev | 59c | 39.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 619 | 53.3%330 W · 289 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…405fbacked Medvedev | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…d3dfbacked Medvedev | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Medvedev | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 257 | 37%95 W · 162 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Medvedev | 56c | 19.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Alcaraz | 74c | 19.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs Medvedevthis page
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil MedvedevDaniil Medvedev won
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Medvedev (+1.5)Medvedev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.