MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7683cbfa66cf149ece4dbcdd770639f20ad3e902b49c6202b3fe37c06a5bb806
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 55c | 44,444$24,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,999.79 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 45c | 21,034$9,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,465.3 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 45c | 17,615$7,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,926.89 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 8c | 7,245$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.03 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 6,798$3,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,059 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 6c | 2,400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 5c | 1,555$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 14c | 1,494$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.35 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 55c | 1,200$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 55c | 1,170$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.5 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 55c | 874$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.3 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 4c | 818$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 45c | 753$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.85 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 8c | 410.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 44c | 276$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.44 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 45c | 266.67$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c2…d39ebacked Over | 46c | 212.76$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 46c | 203$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 7c | 200.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 191.15$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.11 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 10c | 102.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Over | 45c | 67.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 45c | 67.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 54c | 52.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…8cdbbacked Over | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 45c | 39.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -8.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Over | 46c | 27.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ef…34cabacked Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 45c | 22.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 3.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago CubsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.