Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 152.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7687268e16855fb23bc1c8e1140237fa5d9cf06622b80b8c851086d7271ca9a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,277 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Over | 48c | 7,480$3,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,914.94 | 274 | 50%137 W · 137 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 4,681$2,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,295.02 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 3,964$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,083.23 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 53c | 2,716$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.58 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 53c | 2,680$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.4 | 176 | 43.8%77 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Over | 47c | 2,032$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.03 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 1,775$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.09 | 251 | 45.8%115 W · 136 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 52c | 1,697$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.59 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 72c | 1,625$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.3 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 1,218$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.82 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Over | 47c | 632.69$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.32 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 48c | 520.68$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.86 | 83 | 72.3%60 W · 23 L | +14.6wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 54c | 490.7$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.98 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffd…41d1backed Under | 55c | 450.61$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.83 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 47c | 312.25$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.49 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 47c | 295.28$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.5 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under | 54c | 288.14$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.64 | 270 | 45.2%122 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 47c | 210.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 51c | 179.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.83 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 47c | 168.52$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.31 | 394 | 54.6%215 W · 179 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 48c | 165.21$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 47c | 147.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 301 | 52.8%159 W · 142 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…9baebacked Over | 47c | 126.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 36c | 117.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 51c | 99.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 53c | 97.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 43c | 94.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 528 | 43.6%230 W · 298 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f5…c391backed Under | 64c | 92.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…03e9backed Over | 50c | 66.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked Over | 56c | 65.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked Under | 70c | 51.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d02…46e2backed Under | 54c | 42.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…0b88backed Over | 28c | 42.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 77c | 40.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 334 | 45.5%152 W · 182 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Over | 70c | 36.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 50c | 32.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33d0…a2a2backed Over | 47c | 31.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11f1…8a2cbacked Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked Over | 47c | 25.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Under | 64c | 21.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…7df7backed Over | 52c | 19.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 152.5this page
- Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting IlliniIllinois Fighting Illini won
- Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 150.5Over won
- Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 151.5Over won
- Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 153.5Over won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-21.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-24.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-25.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.