Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-24.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab051596cfb5c457f9df0c94fddaedc8d34d2a2f17e2494ec4b7259addfd93d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinois Fighting Illiniof Illinois Fighting Illini, Penn Quakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,681 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Penn Quakers | 46c | 5,555$2,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,555.24 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Penn Quakers | 50c | 5,555$2,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,777.29 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 54c | 3,087$1,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.03 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 52c | 2,821$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.12 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 2,108$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.09 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…ebf6backed Penn Quakers | 58c | 1,709$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Penn Quakers | 45c | 1,658$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.09 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Penn Quakers | 47c | 1,634$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.71 | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | +14.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 55c | 1,546$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.13 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e6…dcdfbacked Penn Quakers | 50c | 1,224$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 42c | 1,163$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.58 | 251 | 45.8%115 W · 136 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8f03backed Penn Quakers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Penn Quakers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Penn Quakers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 53c | 949.71$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.47 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Penn Quakers | 46c | 705.65$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.6 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 52c | 700$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 55c | 545.18$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.13 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Penn Quakers | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a9…4d64backed Penn Quakers | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Penn Quakers | 61c | 495.84$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.46 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked Penn Quakers | 46c | 495.65$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 52c | 473.1$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.37 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 42c | 449.36$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.63 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Penn Quakers | 46c | 446.09$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.2 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…dedebacked Penn Quakers | 43c | 354$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.22 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Penn Quakers | 47c | 295.28$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.78 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Penn Quakers | 47c | 292.24$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 56c | 249.12$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.61 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 53c | 224.01$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.28 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Penn Quakers | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Penn Quakers | 47c | 210.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed Penn Quakers | 47c | 198.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Penn Quakers | 48c | 131.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 55c | 130.27$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Penn Quakers | 48c | 118.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…2687backed Penn Quakers | 46c | 107.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Penn Quakers | 45c | 105.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 247 | 37.7%93 W · 154 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 52c | 102.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 42c | 100.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 528 | 43.6%230 W · 298 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…1325backed Penn Quakers | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Penn Quakers | 55c | 93.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Penn Quakers | 47c | 73.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Penn Quakers | 46c | 73.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 55c | 63.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Penn Quakers | 46c | 60.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 507 | 45.2%229 W · 278 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 54c | 56.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 54c | 55.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -7.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 53c | 50.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…873ebacked Penn Quakers | 47c | 49.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d02…46e2backed Penn Quakers | 46c | 49.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 57c | 46.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +19.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Penn Quakers | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2c…d5cdbacked Penn Quakers | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ed…96e1backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 54c | 36.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Penn Quakers | 44c | 35.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 56c | 35.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Penn Quakers | 47c | 34.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 301 | 52.8%159 W · 142 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 52c | 28.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Penn Quakers | 48c | 25.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c04…34a8backed Penn Quakers | 50c | 22.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 53c | 22.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +10.0wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-24.5)this page
- Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting IlliniIllinois Fighting Illini won
- Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 150.5Over won
- Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 151.5Over won
- Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 152.5Over won
- Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 153.5Over won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-21.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-25.5)Illinois Fighting Illini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.