TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 150.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,692

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,692 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Under48c12,633$6,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,063.9246246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Over52c12,429$6,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,965.9824451.2%125 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Over52c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,800933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c2b…2575backed Over52c9,881$5,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,763.0460949.8%303 W · 306 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Under50c8,921$4,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,460.632828.6%8 W · 20 L-5.1wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under48c8,909$4,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,276.2284147.4%399 W · 442 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under48c6,751$3,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,233.262,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over51c5,859$2,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,876.1612,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3817…7d10backed Over52c5,802$3,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,766.0329845.3%135 W · 163 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.9910739.3%42 W · 65 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Over52c3,965$2,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,903.23540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under47c3,020$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,434.245,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Under47c2,695$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.5274051.5%381 W · 359 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d66…22d1backed Over53c2,087$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.157450%37 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Under48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.985942.4%25 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b1e…6738backed Under49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9805054%27 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under48c1,404$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.711,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under51c1,242$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.392,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Under48c1,032$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.5512846.9%60 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over49c1,007$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.4425145.8%115 W · 136 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Over52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801250%6 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Under48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4803638.9%14 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc676…f35cbacked Under48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4808248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Over52c999.93$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.9742246.2%195 W · 227 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Under48c963.45$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.4818556.8%105 W · 80 L+14.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe548…a51abacked Under50c880.07$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.0450%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under48c816.18$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.7627947.3%132 W · 147 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over54c643.65$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.0892246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Over51c583.09$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.7124847.6%118 W · 130 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under49c552.72$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.832,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Over51c495.63$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.861,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under48c449.01$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.515,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed Under47c358.55$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.523046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Under51c299.12$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.5514447.9%69 W · 75 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdff8…3c8bbacked Under48c297.38$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.742951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Under48c256.31$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.4435338.5%136 W · 217 L-18.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under53c245.74$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.034,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Under48c195.36$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7716650%83 W · 83 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under48c166.62$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9827650.7%140 W · 136 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Over51c149.39$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.215238.8%59 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eaa…9baebacked Over53c120.73$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7410458.7%61 W · 43 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Over52c114.38$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.99554.7%52 W · 43 L-0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Over53c99.95$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9820254.5%110 W · 92 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Under47c99.13$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5921455.6%119 W · 95 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Over52c99.13$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.5814546.9%68 W · 77 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Over52c95.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9558652.9%310 W · 276 L+23.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c7d…d1c9backed Over53c93.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.953745.9%17 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Under47c90.21$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.424737.7%93 W · 154 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over52c85.28$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9462451.1%319 W · 305 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df8…8206backed Under48c82.59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.64922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Over53c74.81$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1640849.8%203 W · 205 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71a…f135backed Under50c68.67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.342536%9 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-34.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1911…ebf8backed Over52c65.12$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.26475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+50.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5ed…96e1backed Under47c63.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.747162%44 W · 27 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked Over53c56.11$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3711741.9%49 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Over49c55.04$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0752843.6%230 W · 298 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea7…1be7backed Under48c52.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.321957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked Over52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248350.6%42 W · 41 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c34…2d7dbacked Over53c47.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4115252.6%80 W · 72 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d02…46e2backed Under50c46.87$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.438640.7%35 W · 51 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Under48c45.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8930152.8%159 W · 142 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under48c43.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8622047.7%105 W · 115 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbe2…5981backed Under53c41.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.884042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25ec…c4f2backed Under50c39.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.83742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa938…3bc3backed Under50c39.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.834146.3%19 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0ca…0022backed Under48c38.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.541250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under48c33.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9729650.7%150 W · 146 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x567e…770fbacked Under77c32.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.15450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed Under50c28.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.372231.8%7 W · 15 L-4.2wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-36.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaa59…75ecbacked Over51c27.13$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.314346.9%67 W · 76 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ff2…cf14backed Under49c25.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.391947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.591848.9%449 W · 469 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Under48c22.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4833058.2%192 W · 138 L+24.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.