Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76a24aa21e31c859b676a943fb7608d53be56805ff4cdad8723e0dde25c4092d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 67c | 625.65$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.58 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 29c | 616.52$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.62 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…3676backed Yes | 29c | 366.65$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 337.75$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 43c | 248.06$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 54c | 243.67$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.66 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 49c | 240.14$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 33c | 184.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 71c | 170$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 161.04$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 52c | 131.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 33c | 130.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 34c | 125.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 122.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 119.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 36c | 113.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 45c | 110.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 108.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7711…41e6backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 93.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 92.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 90.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 87.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 81.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 34c | 74.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 72.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 34c | 60.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 59.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 51c | 58.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 49c | 56.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 49c | 50.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 48c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 46.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 44.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 45c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 64c | 39.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 53c | 39.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 56c | 37.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 37.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 50c | 36.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 32.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 28.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 49c | 28.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 42c | 27.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 46c | 27.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 79c | 24.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 50c | 23.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 78c | 22.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 53c | 22.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…0b14backed No | 66c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.