Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1ec6b6a3d991465f6229abb5674719f3426ffe6aea668f47e35511789f93679
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 77c | 557.39$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.92 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 202.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 185.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…3676backed Yes | 32c | 179.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 175.48$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.81 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 165.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.85 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 159.96$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.57 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 127.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 98.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 40c | 94.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 92.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 36c | 85.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 78.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 35c | 63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 70c | 62.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 37c | 62.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked No | 73c | 52.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 38c | 52.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7a…24f9backed Yes | 78c | 51.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 31c | 49.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 30c | 48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 47.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…d269backed Yes | 31c | 45.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 31c | 45.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 28c | 45.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 36c | 44.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 34c | 43.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 68c | 43.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…ee79backed Yes | 30c | 42.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 43c | 41.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 39.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 36.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 68c | 36.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 69c | 34.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 32.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 31.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 31.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 30.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 65c | 30.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 66c | 28.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 25.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0550…c7efbacked Yes | 41c | 25.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 77c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 18.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 74c | 18.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 72c | 17.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 63c | 15.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 73c | 15.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.