NHL · resolved market
Kraken vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7745e4ebdd6729c4e2eb0e61c82e0d8ac0ce51487dce1f3327114c6911ecae23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 57c | 3,333$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,433.18 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67e7…52cabacked Over | 44c | 1,193$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 55c | 1,138$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.15 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…b601backed Over | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 44c | 997.9$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.08 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 984.88$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.6 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 43c | 887.02$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.42 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf90e…0b56backed Over | 45c | 688.5$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.82 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Over | 45c | 462.45$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.1 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 44c | 354.54$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.96 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Under | 57c | 353.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.54 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 65c | 316.51$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.21 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…f5c7backed Under | 56c | 233.04$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc568…ecb7backed Under | 55c | 203.64$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 43c | 201.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Under | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 55c | 179$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 28c | 165$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 164.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 44c | 152$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…138cbacked Under | 57c | 135.65$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Under | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked Over | 44c | 85.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 46c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 58c | 62.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Under | 55c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 44c | 41.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 44c | 33.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Over | 44c | 23.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed Under | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kraken vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5this page
- Kraken vs. BruinsBruins won
- Kraken vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Bruins (-1.5)Bruins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.