MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x779638e78cb31dcca8940a97431e8ae5af37436b3c3cee0a722fb3c833b0c5a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 49c | 15,580$7,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,697.45 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 9,087$4,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,444.27 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.98 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 2,800$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 1,962$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.34 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 49c | 1,531$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.19 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 49c | 948.37$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.7 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 583.86$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.38 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 543.03$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.08 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 420$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 49c | 307$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.43 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 49c | 217.83$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.09 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 49c | 210$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a5…cd84backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 61c | 179.46$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 61c | 179.46$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 61c | 146$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 51c | 129.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 49c | 113.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 48c | 100.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 44c | 99.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Over | 47c | 99.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 93.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 58c | 86.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 51c | 78.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 49c | 76.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 51c | 76.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 44c | 68.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 51c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 51c | 57.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 57c | 54.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…37f1backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…10c1backed Over | 44c | 47.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Under | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | -16.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…8254backed Under | 72c | 38.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 89 | 66.3%59 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Over | 44c | 34.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 49c | 29.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Under | 56c | 24.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati RedsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.