MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77b0f4024ed9c8deb5123e4f635d6193fed9c86e7e903ec447c011db2e9c93d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 4,049$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…9d8cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 2,903$1,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 1,480$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 1,355$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 985.98$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.81 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 861$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.79 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 800$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 556$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf7…0505backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 383.78$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 308.08$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.43 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 283.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 256.49$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 205$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 174.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 118.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 104.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 98.46$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 90.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 62.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 60.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 50.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 50.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 49.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…77dabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed St. Louis Cardinals | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 39.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 37.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62de…39fbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -5.0wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -74%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 32.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 32.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed St. Louis Cardinals | 72c | 26.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 150 | 37.3%56 W · 94 L | -15.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 21.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh PiratesSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.