MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddcc6166b41808df0ae297ced4b3ed9ebb7665b2d0be3ca5a4488381f15965aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 47c | 2,530$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,342.68 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…c8d3backed Under | 65c | 2,462$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.2 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 50c | 1,652$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.03 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 49c | 1,285$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.57 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 37c | 1,048$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.65 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Under | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 51c | 981.37$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.37 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 51c | 844.32$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.32 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 52c | 838.81$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.57 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 50c | 757$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.5 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 48c | 535.38$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.98 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 70c | 486.57$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Under | 51c | 332.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.82 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 50c | 317.21$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.76 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 50c | 275$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 50c | 238.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.51 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 49c | 218.37$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…4004backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 51c | 197.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 190.51$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 29c | 185$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 50c | 149.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 40c | 137.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 66c | 124.94$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 50c | 118.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 51c | 118.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 53c | 97.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed Over | 67c | 82.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…43fdbacked Under | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Over | 52c | 77.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Over | 53c | 74.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 150 | 37.3%56 W · 94 L | -15.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 67c | 72.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 73c | 68.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 47c | 66.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 48c | 65.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 55c | 63.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Over | 50c | 59.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…a9cfbacked Over | 46c | 59.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 52c | 54.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6d7bbacked Over | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +5.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 49c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 73c | 45.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 31c | 42.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 52c | 42.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 56c | 40.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Under | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Under | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 53c | 37.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 50c | 34.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 58c | 30.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 74c | 26.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…df87backed Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 74c | 14.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh PiratesSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.