Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77c7c1d0f0675a3ef2e68edd035ec01ea432a67c507a9a3b4e20714e400810d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 77c | 842.33$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.97 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 351.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 22c | 303.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 25c | 234.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 214.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 186.55$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 171.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 72c | 139.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 22c | 133.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 129.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 89.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 28c | 86.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 85.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb1…1f81backed Yes | 30c | 82.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked No | 66c | 75.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 72c | 63.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 34c | 63.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 63.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked No | 80c | 61.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 33c | 60.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 76c | 55.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 53.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 29c | 51.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 69c | 50.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6e…ee5fbacked Yes | 32c | 42.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30dd…3aa1backed Yes | 35c | 41.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…9f08backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…9bc4backed No | 67c | 20.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0548…4521backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…f63abacked No | 78c | 14.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.