Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7df298364bf3ca29550814b340685044f5407961cf0b03dfd248b57c7af4d05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 9c | 532.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 475.94$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 473.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 78c | 450$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 346.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 314.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 299.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…daccbacked Yes | 5c | 299.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 253.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 5c | 252.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 61c | 175.08$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 172.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 28c | 168$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…9f08backed Yes | 12c | 165.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 162.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 158.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 13c | 155.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 14c | 153.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 18c | 140.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 73c | 139.01$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 29c | 136.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402b…3439backed Yes | 25c | 120.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 24c | 118$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 117.8$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 28c | 101.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb1…1f81backed Yes | 15c | 101.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 99.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 16c | 80.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…c303backed No | 74c | 73.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed No | 71c | 73.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 59.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa96…99a5backed No | 80c | 58.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d1…b527backed Yes | 28c | 52.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 71c | 42.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 40.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed No | 79c | 24.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…3cecbacked No | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 34 | 82.4%28 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked No | 72c | 20.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa294…e25fbacked No | 73c | 20.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 70c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 15.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 15.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 77c | 14.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.